Enpak sou Vwayaje ak Touris endistri Ameriken an analize: Ki jan pou konpanse pou COVID-19?

Today US President Trump said that the cost of shutting down US travel and tourism industry (hotels, restaurants, airlines) is about 30 billion dollars a month, and the government is preparing to compensate for the loss. The president pointed out that it’s not the fault of a hotel or restaurant owner, that the guests are no longer showing up. “The government stopped it”, President Trump noted.

A new analysis released Tuesday by the U.S. Travel Association projects that decreased travel due to coronavirus will inflict an $809 billion total hit on the U.S. economy and eliminate 4.6 million travel-related American jobs this year. Earnings in March and April will be 75% below normal.

The dire impact numbers, prepared for the U.S. Travel Association by Tourism Economics, were presented by U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Roger Dow at a Tuesday White House meeting with President Trump, Vice President Pence, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and other travel leaders.

Dow te di Madi. "Kriz la sante te okipe atansyon piblik la ak gouvènman an, men yon katastwòf ki kapab lakòz pou anplwayè yo ak anplwaye yo deja isit la epi yo pral vin pi mal." "Biznis ki gen rapò ak vwayaj anplwaye 15.8 milyon Ameriken, epi si yo pa kapab peye kenbe limyè yo limen, yo pa kapab peye kenbe anplwaye yo. San etap sekou pou katastwòf agresif e imedya, faz rekiperasyon an pral pi long e pi difisil, epi baro ki pi ba yo nan nechèl ekonomik la pral santi yo pi move nan li. "

Dow te note ke 83% nan anplwayè vwayaj yo se ti biznis yo.

Lòt rezilta remakab nan analiz enpak vwayaj la:

• Total spending on travel in the U.S.— transportation, lodging, retail, attractions and restaurants—is projected to plunge by $355 billion for the year, or 31%. That is more than six times the impact of 9/11.
• Pèt yo estime pa endistri vwayaj la pou kont li yo grav ase pou pouse Etazini an nan yon resesyon très-espere dire omwen twa ka, ak Q2 2020 yo te pwen an ki ba.
• Pwojte 4.6 milyon travay ki gen rapò ak vwayaj pèdi ta, pou kont yo, prèske double to chomaj Etazini an (3.5% a 6.3%).

"Sitiyasyon sa a konplètman san presedan," Dow te di. "Pou dedomajman pou sante alontèm ekonomi an, patwon yo ak anplwaye yo bezwen soulajman kounye a nan dezas sa a ki te kreye pa sikonstans konplètman soti nan kontwòl yo."

Nan reyinyon Madi Mezon Blanch lan, Dow te mande administrasyon an pou konsidere $ 150 milya dola nan soulajman jeneral pou sektè vwayaj la pi laj. Pami mekanis yo sijere:

• Etabli yon Fon Estabilizasyon Mendèv Vwayaj
• Bay yon etablisman likidite pou ijans pou biznis vwayaj yo
• Optimize ak modifye pwogram prè SBA pou sipòte ti biznis yo ak anplwaye yo.

Oxford Economics, in coordination with its Tourism Economics subsidiary company, modeled the expected downturns in the US travel industry in 2020 as a result of Coronavirus. We then modeled the economic impacts of these travel industry losses in terms of GDP, unemployment, and taxes.

Travel Industry Losses A decline of 31% for the entire year is expected.

This includes a 75% drop in revenue over the next two months and continued losses over the rest of the year reaching $355 billion. GDP Losses Travel industry losses will result in a cumulative GDP impact of $450 billion in 2020.

We project the US economy to enter a protracted recession based on the expected downturn in travel alone. The recession is likely to last at least three quarters with the lowest point in the second quarter of 2020. Tax Losses A decline of $55 billion in taxes will be realized as a result of travel declines in 2020.

Employment Losses The US economy is projected to lose 4.6 million jobs as a result of travel declines in 2020. The unemployment rate of 3.5% in February will rise substantially in the coming months. Travel-related employment losses alone will push the unemployment rate up to 6.3% over the next few months.

The Time Opportunity The greatest opportunity to mitigate these losses is to reduce the time required for a recovery.

While typical recovery times from a disease related crisis range from 12-16 months, this can be shortened through strategic promotions and support of the travel industry. We analyzed two scenarios for shortening the duration of losses.

SCENARIO 1: FULL RECOVERY BEGINS IN JUNE Scenario assumes full recovery is achieved in June.

Each month from June-December offers a potential average gain of $17.8 billion in GDP and $2.2 billion in taxes. Total benefits would tally $100 billion in travel industry revenue, $15 billion in taxes, and 1.6 million jobs restored. SCENARIO 2: 50% RECOVERY BEGINS IN JUNE Scenario assumes that recovery is accelerated by 50% (relative to expected performance) beginning in June. In this scenario, each month offers a potential gain of $8.9 billion in GDP and $1.1 billion in taxes.

Total benefits would tally $50 billion in travel industry revenue, $7.7 billion in taxes, and 823,000 jobs restored